Webinar: Eonomic outlook post COVID-19.
MHA MacIntyre Hudson
MHA MacIntyre Hudson, partners to Winmark’s Chief Financial Officer and Tax Director Networks, are running an economic update and live Q&A session with Professor Joe Nellis, Global Economist from Cranfield University on 13th July 2020 (8.30 to 9.30 am).
In this free webinar Joe will be providing his view on the future outlook for the UK and global economy post COVID-19, and also the longer term impact of the Government’s unprecedented stimulus packages. He will also be taking live questions afterwards.
Joe joined Cranfield in 1984 and established the Economics Group ten years later. In 2017 the Economics Group was ranked Number 1 in the world by the FT for the teaching of economics on MBA programmes and has been consistently ranked as one of the Top 10 in the world for more than a decade.
Demystifying modelling: How models should - and shouldn’t - be used
McKinsey & Company
One of the many impacts of the COVID-19 crisis has been to highlight the role of quantitative models in our lives.
This article explains how models can help us make sense of the world and why they behave the way they do. It also identifies the pitfalls to avoid when using models, including:
- Overlooking the fact that a model can’t fix bad data: Data can be wanting for various reasons - too few data points, inconsistency, inaccuracy, or incorrectly generalising from a particular data set.
- Taking assumptions and simplifications for granted: Assumptions aren’t facts; they should be subject to regular, searching review. For example, prior to the 2008 financial crisis, a key assumption in multiple models was that property prices wouldn’t see major declines.
- Expecting too much certainty: Models aren’t designed to eliminate uncertainty but to limit the range of uncertainties in a given situation by showing what might happen in a variety of defined scenarios.
How to design a better hiring process
Harvard Business Review
Alex Haimann, Partner at Less Annoying CRM, shares his recruitment processes. They have been developed to gather the most useful insights about the critical-thinking abilities and interpersonal skills of candidates.
- Questions: Prior to all interviews, we share the questions we’ll be asking with candidates.
- Technical skills: After the question portion of the interview, we schedule a 45- to 90-minute chat between the candidate and a team member who is an expert in their field, followed by a short exercise to test their collaboration skills.
- Writing samples: The assignment we give is specific to the role each candidate is applying for. In a remote interview, we would schedule a break in our video call to give them 30-45 minutes to complete the assignment.
- Games: We want to know how candidates will interact with their prospective colleagues on a day-to-day basis. But instead of making assumptions based on their answers to interview questions, our process allows us to observe their actual interactions. In a remote interview, we would go with a game, such as Codenames.
An assessment of the economic impact of COVID-19
This article provides a global assessment of the impact of COVID-19.
Despite massive fiscal stimulus packages, Europe will see strong negative growth rates for GDP. The current forecast is negative growth in real GDP of 8.2% in 2020. Social and economic life will be disrupted for some time to come and only a partial recovery is expected in 2021, with GDP growth of 5.9%.