The pandemic could profoundly change the economy, government policy, and the way people work, live, and spend money, according to Ira Kalish, chief global economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.
The COVID-19 crisis may reshape many aspects of life, from the way we work and shop to fundamental assumptions about the role of government and the importance of privacy.
Businesses will become more virtual and geographically fragmented. An increase in stay-at-home workers will mean less automotive traffic and energy consumed, more bits and bytes transmitted, more time spent with families, a greater need for home offices, less need for commercial office space, and less demand for affiliated office services.
While the current crisis could be compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s, it is more reminiscent of World War II, when nations threw a huge number of resources into the fight, resulting in a massive build-up of debt. With the exception of the United Kingdom, most major countries that fought - both winners and losers - experienced strong economic growth in the aftermath of the war. Debt was not an obstacle to growth.
The same might be true once this war is won. Of course, the post-World War II era was characterized by increased global cooperation and reduced obstacles to the movement of goods and capital. It is not clear if that will be true following the current crisis.
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London school of Economics
Real-time survey data shows that 50% of companies had a lower volume of business in April, and the situation is expected to get worse over the next three months.
A relatively under-utilised source of information on businesses comes from industry groups that collect information to provide insights into the state of the economy. Drawing on the latest survey data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) this article examines how businesses fared during the lockdown.
See the full survey results here.
Lead your team Into a post-pandemic world
Harvard Business Review
Two crucial ideas have taken hold with corporate leaders:
- Given the magnitude of the shock and the challenges that this crisis represents, companies must consider the full breadth of their employees’ needs as people. Safety is essential, of course, but it’s also important to address higher-level needs such as the want for truth, stability, authentic connections, self-esteem, growth, and meaning in the context of the crisis.
- Many CEOs have begun thinking about this crisis in three phases. They may assign different names or specific lengths to these phases, but they all roughly map to three distinct time horizons: the shelter-in-place phase, the re-opening phase, and the post COVID-19 phase.
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How CMOs can shape the next normal
McKinsey & Company
For leaders to effectively manage dynamic and unpredictable challenges, we believe they need to focus on five specific capabilities
- Start-up mindset. The current uncertainty favours companies with a start-up mindset, which allows them to embrace change, flexibility, innovation, and purpose. This attitude leads to questioning accepted wisdom, obsessing over cash, driving a test-learn-adapt way of operating, and a bias toward action over research. This resilient spirit can propel a company into the recovery and the next normal with more innovative, agile thinking across new business models centred on analytics, platforms, and changing customer needs.
- Human at the core. CMOs will need to invest in their people and how to support them through the crisis. They will also need the discipline to think ahead about their talent needs. The next normal will clearly require a new set of skills and capabilities, and CMOs will need to work closely with HR to innovate in finding new talent and keeping what they already have by developing new career paths and creating more flexible relationships with agencies and remote workers. In tandem, companies should look to rapidly upskill front-line work-from-home sales and marketing talent to capitalize on new pockets and pools of talent that are suddenly available in a full-remote operating model.
- Accelerated digital, tech, and analytics. The crisis represents a permanent inflection point in the shift to digital. This reality demands a tech-based response, with CMOs leading the drive to develop better analytics to understand customers at scale, a more flexible and scalable tech stack to drive business innovation and channel rollout, and digitized processes to accelerate and improve decision making. Many B2B companies, for example, have found that advanced analytics provide a far more objective and dynamic assessment of the quality of a commercial offering than traditional methods.
- Purpose-driven customer playbook. Amid uncertainty, the power of a brand as a known quantity is a tremendous asset. The current crisis has brought into stark relief the importance of brands meeting the moment with authenticity. Companies will need to revisit what their brands stand for and their value propositions to their customers. The playbook has changed, and leaders will need to build purpose-driven customer decision journeys that create trust, confidence, loyalty, and a differentiated experience wherever they are.
- Ecosystems to drive adaptability. The disruptions in supply chains and offline buying channels have made adaptability crucial not just to survival but to accessing opportunities quickly. This will require new partnerships, new models of “co-opetition,” strategic M&A, and in-house builds.